Greenomics, a local non-governmental organization supporting good forestry governance, has warned the government that the devastating floods affecting many parts of Java are likely to continue in the future.

Should the government fail to act against those responsible for environmental degradation and deforestation, even more destructive inundations are likely to result in losses of up to Rp 136.2 trillion (about US$14.33 billion) arising out of damage to forests, fisheries and agricultural resources, towns and villages, public infrastructure and the business sector.

Greenomics executive director Elfian Effendi said Tuesday, "Continual degradation and deforestation affecting the island's forests will result in the disappearance of all existing forests and result in losses of Rp 136.2 trillion by 2008."

According to figures from the Forestry Ministry, more than 330,000 hectares have been degraded and over 102,000 hectares have been deforested in both protected and conservation forests on Java island from 2002 to 2004.

"This has caused the country losses amounting to Rp 8.37 trillion since 2002," Elfian added.

Greenomics forecasts that by the end of 2006, only 364,000 hectares of forest will be left in Java, and all will have disappeared by the end of 2008. In fact, the remaining forests could disappear even more quickly if action is not taken soon.

Boen M. Purnama, the secretary-general of the Forestry Ministry, told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday, "It's a good warning to the government and it could well come to pass."

To avert the looming disaster, Purnama said the ministry would intensify its programs for illegal logging eradication, forest revitalization, conservation and rehabilitation, and forest zone stabilization.

Through spatial planning predictions, the utilization of satellite imagery, field studies and comprehensive analyses, Greenomics identified 123 potential danger areas along watersheds in West, Central and East Java -- the provinces that are predicted to see most of the flooding in the future.

Greenomics said illegal logging and the conversion of forest land into plantations were the main contributors to the loss of forest quality and diversity.

Purnama admitted the government was still finding it difficult to halt illegal logging, saying his ministry had no power over the law enforcement and legal institutions.

Despite a 2005 presidential instruction on the eradication of illegal logging, the practice still continues. Greenomics said the regulation was not being enforced, despite the involvement of at least 18 government institutions.

"The government is not serious about eradicating illegal logging," Elfian claimed.

He said the presidential instruction urgently needed to be replaced by an emergency government regulation (which could subsequently be converted into a law by the House), to ensure that those involved in illegal logging were brought to justice.

In response, Purnama said, "The ministry has drafted a bill on illegal logging to strengthen the government's hand against the illegal loggers."

Purnama hopes the draft can be brought before the House of Representatives in March and be ratified soon after.